Forex Weekly Trading Forecast – 11.02.09
October 30, 2009
US Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish Ahead of Critical Economic Data Euro Pullback May Turn into Reversal Should Dollar Recover Japanese Yen May See Consolidation Period Following Major Rally British Pound Assured Volatility as BoE is Forced into a Policy Decision Swiss Franc Likely to See Major Breakout Versus Euro Canadian Dollar Will Find Direction From Employment Data Australian Dollar to Look Past RBA Rate Hike, Trade on Risk New Zealand Dollar To Weaken as Employment, Wage Growth Falter For detailed analysis by currency pair, please visit our dedicated Forecast Page .
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Forex Weekly Trading Forecast – 11.02.09
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US Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish Ahead of Critical Economic Data Euro Pullback May Turn into Reversal Should Dollar Recover Japanese Yen May See Consolidation Period Following Major Rally British Pound Assured Volatility as BoE is Forced into a Policy Decision Swiss Franc Likely to See Major Breakout Versus Euro Canadian Dollar Will Find Direction From Employment Data Australian Dollar to Look Past RBA Rate Hike, Trade on Risk New Zealand Dollar To Weaken as Employment, Wage Growth Falter For detailed analysis by currency pair, please visit our dedicated Forecast Page .
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Forex Weekly Trading Forecast – 11.02.09
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Canadian Dollar Will Find Direction From Employment Data
October 30, 2009
Canadian Dollar Will Find Direction From Employment Data Fundamental Forecast for Canadian Dollar: Bearish - Canadian GDP Unexpectedly Contracts by 0.1% in August - Crude Prices Continue To Dictate “Loonie’s” Direction The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level in nearly a month against the greenback as broader risk aversion and weak growth figures helped erase early October gains. Canadian GDP unexpectedly fell in August by 0.1% disappointing economists who were looking for growth of 0.1%. Oil and gas extraction and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing were the main sources of the decline. The Canadian economy is expected to feed off of the global recovery and government stimulus. Therefore, the surprise contraction will weigh on the outlook for future growth but the lagging indicator’s relevance could diminish if upcoming fundamental readings continue to point toward a sustainable recovery. However, what may be of more concern for currency traders are the central bank’s continued talk of intervention. The verbal efforts may not be driving current weakness but could limit bullish sentiment going forward.
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Canadian Dollar Will Find Direction From Employment Data
From DailyFX:
Canadian Dollar Will Find Direction From Employment Data Fundamental Forecast for Canadian Dollar: Bearish - Canadian GDP Unexpectedly Contracts by 0.1% in August - Crude Prices Continue To Dictate “Loonie’s” Direction The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level in nearly a month against the greenback as broader risk aversion and weak growth figures helped erase early October gains. Canadian GDP unexpectedly fell in August by 0.1% disappointing economists who were looking for growth of 0.1%. Oil and gas extraction and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing were the main sources of the decline. The Canadian economy is expected to feed off of the global recovery and government stimulus. Therefore, the surprise contraction will weigh on the outlook for future growth but the lagging indicator’s relevance could diminish if upcoming fundamental readings continue to point toward a sustainable recovery. However, what may be of more concern for currency traders are the central bank’s continued talk of intervention. The verbal efforts may not be driving current weakness but could limit bullish sentiment going forward.
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Canadian Dollar Will Find Direction From Employment Data
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Australian Dollar Speculative Longs Remain Extreme
October 30, 2009
US dollar short positions and Euro long positions (speculative) have come off slightly from extreme levels, but Australian dollar long positions increased.
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Australian Dollar Speculative Longs Remain Extreme
Here’s an interesting a:1:{i:0;s:8:”TkRZMg==”;} post from DailyFX:
US dollar short positions and Euro long positions (speculative) have come off slightly from extreme levels, but Australian dollar long positions increased.
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Australian Dollar Speculative Longs Remain Extreme
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US Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish Ahead of Critical Economic Data
October 30, 2009
US Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish Ahead of Critical Economic Data Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish - US Dollar rallies substantially on S&P 500 losses - Forex Options and Futures continue to call for US Dollar bottom - US Dollar to remain volatile on Rate Decisions and NFP’s The US Dollar finally showed signs of life through the past week of trading, setting a substantial low against the Euro and other key forex counterparts. An early-week tumble in the US S&P 500 and other financial risk sentiment barometers provided the spark for the dollar turnaround. Given extremely one-sided Dollar-bearish sentiment, it was little surprise to see the previously downtrodden currency continue mostly higher through Friday’s close. We have long argued that the Greenback was likely to establish a substantial low on overstretched market positioning. Of course, it is never profitable to be early on calls for major counter-trend moves. Yet the substantive week-long turnaround gives us reason to believe that the US Dollar has set a major low and will likely continue higher through end-of-year trading.
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US Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish Ahead of Critical Economic Data
From DailyFX:
US Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish Ahead of Critical Economic Data Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish - US Dollar rallies substantially on S&P 500 losses - Forex Options and Futures continue to call for US Dollar bottom - US Dollar to remain volatile on Rate Decisions and NFP’s The US Dollar finally showed signs of life through the past week of trading, setting a substantial low against the Euro and other key forex counterparts. An early-week tumble in the US S&P 500 and other financial risk sentiment barometers provided the spark for the dollar turnaround. Given extremely one-sided Dollar-bearish sentiment, it was little surprise to see the previously downtrodden currency continue mostly higher through Friday’s close. We have long argued that the Greenback was likely to establish a substantial low on overstretched market positioning. Of course, it is never profitable to be early on calls for major counter-trend moves. Yet the substantive week-long turnaround gives us reason to believe that the US Dollar has set a major low and will likely continue higher through end-of-year trading.
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US Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish Ahead of Critical Economic Data
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Japanese Yen May See Consolidation Period Following Major Rally
October 30, 2009
The Japanese yen was easily the strongest of the majors over the past week, rallying nearly 7 percent against the New Zealand dollar and over 4 percent versus the euro, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar. The yen’s gains were not as extreme against the US dollar, though the 2 percent drop in USDJPY is nothing to laugh at.
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Japanese Yen May See Consolidation Period Following Major Rally
From DailyFX:
The Japanese yen was easily the strongest of the majors over the past week, rallying nearly 7 percent against the New Zealand dollar and over 4 percent versus the euro, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar. The yen’s gains were not as extreme against the US dollar, though the 2 percent drop in USDJPY is nothing to laugh at.
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Japanese Yen May See Consolidation Period Following Major Rally
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US Dollar, Japanese Yen Dominate as Markets are Reminded of Importance of Risk Aversion
October 30, 2009
• Euro, Swiss Franc Virtually Unchanged Despite SNB Intervention • British Pound Outlook Hinges Upon BOE Meeting Outcome and Status of Quantitative Easing • Australian Dollar Down with Other Carry Trades – Will the RBA Actually Raise Rates Again Next Week?
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US Dollar, Japanese Yen Dominate as Markets are Reminded of Importance of Risk Aversion
This is from DailyFX:
• Euro, Swiss Franc Virtually Unchanged Despite SNB Intervention • British Pound Outlook Hinges Upon BOE Meeting Outcome and Status of Quantitative Easing • Australian Dollar Down with Other Carry Trades – Will the RBA Actually Raise Rates Again Next Week?
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US Dollar, Japanese Yen Dominate as Markets are Reminded of Importance of Risk Aversion
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Swiss Franc Likely to See Major Breakout Versus Euro
October 30, 2009
Swiss Franc Likely to See Major Breakout Versus Euro Fundamental Forecast for Swiss Franc: Neutral – Swiss KOF rises to its highest in 17 months – Swiss Franc Futures and Options positioning nonetheless points to CHF losses The Swiss Franc finished the week modestly higher against the Euro in open defiance to clear Swiss National Bank FX intervention. The Euro/Swiss Franc exchange rate hit the contentious SFr 1.5080 mark and very quickly reversed—raising clear suspicion of SNB selling. Indeed, the EURCHF hit its lowest levels in nearly a month following a much better-than-expected Swiss KOF Leading Indicator report. Yet the declines were quite short-lived, and the SNB seemingly drew yet another “line in the sand” to prevent excessive Swiss Franc appreciation. Holding with its policy, the Swiss central bank neglected to comment despite the telltale signs of intervention. Of course, the effects were clearly short-lived; the EURCHF finished just above pre-intervention levels through the end-of-week close. Sharp drops in global equity markets led traders to sell the risk-sensitive Euro and buy the safe-haven Swiss franc—leaving questions as to whether EURCHF intervention may be effective.
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Swiss Franc Likely to See Major Breakout Versus Euro
From DailyFX:
Swiss Franc Likely to See Major Breakout Versus Euro Fundamental Forecast for Swiss Franc: Neutral – Swiss KOF rises to its highest in 17 months – Swiss Franc Futures and Options positioning nonetheless points to CHF losses The Swiss Franc finished the week modestly higher against the Euro in open defiance to clear Swiss National Bank FX intervention. The Euro/Swiss Franc exchange rate hit the contentious SFr 1.5080 mark and very quickly reversed—raising clear suspicion of SNB selling. Indeed, the EURCHF hit its lowest levels in nearly a month following a much better-than-expected Swiss KOF Leading Indicator report. Yet the declines were quite short-lived, and the SNB seemingly drew yet another “line in the sand” to prevent excessive Swiss Franc appreciation. Holding with its policy, the Swiss central bank neglected to comment despite the telltale signs of intervention. Of course, the effects were clearly short-lived; the EURCHF finished just above pre-intervention levels through the end-of-week close. Sharp drops in global equity markets led traders to sell the risk-sensitive Euro and buy the safe-haven Swiss franc—leaving questions as to whether EURCHF intervention may be effective.
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Swiss Franc Likely to See Major Breakout Versus Euro
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Canadian Dollar Slumps Following Oil’s Lead
October 30, 2009
The Canadian dollar continues to see the price of oil dictate direction for the commodity currency as it currently explains 61% of volatility. Crude price have continued to lose ground after failing to hold above the psychological resistance level of $80 and further weakness should continue to provide USD/CAD support.
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Canadian Dollar Slumps Following Oil’s Lead
From DailyFX:
The Canadian dollar continues to see the price of oil dictate direction for the commodity currency as it currently explains 61% of volatility. Crude price have continued to lose ground after failing to hold above the psychological resistance level of $80 and further weakness should continue to provide USD/CAD support.
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Canadian Dollar Slumps Following Oil’s Lead
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EUR/USD Provides Levels For Scalpers To Target
October 30, 2009
The EUR/USD has been at the mercy of risk appetite and the ebb and flow of equity markets has the pair ranging between support and resistance levels. Markets continue to wait for a sharp pull back but improving fundamental data continues to feed optimism, limiting downside potential.
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EUR/USD Provides Levels For Scalpers To Target
From DailyFX:
The EUR/USD has been at the mercy of risk appetite and the ebb and flow of equity markets has the pair ranging between support and resistance levels. Markets continue to wait for a sharp pull back but improving fundamental data continues to feed optimism, limiting downside potential.
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EUR/USD Provides Levels For Scalpers To Target
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British Pound Halts Four Day Rally, Euro Continues to Eye 20-Day SMA
October 30, 2009
The British pound was little changed on Friday following the four-day rally and the currency may continue to retrace the sell-off from the previous month as the economic outlook for the U.K.
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British Pound Halts Four Day Rally, Euro Continues to Eye 20-Day SMA
From DailyFX:
The British pound was little changed on Friday following the four-day rally and the currency may continue to retrace the sell-off from the previous month as the economic outlook for the U.K.
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British Pound Halts Four Day Rally, Euro Continues to Eye 20-Day SMA
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